Running Race Predictor

Running Race Predictor
Running performance tool

Running Race Predictor

Have a recent race time but want to know what you’re capable of at a different distance? The race predictor uses the Riegel formula — the most widely used model in running performance prediction — to estimate your finish time based on a known effort.

It’s useful for setting realistic targets when stepping up in distance, benchmarking triathlon run splits, and understanding where your current fitness puts you across the running spectrum.

1
Enter a known race time
2
Choose your target distance
3
See your predicted finish time
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Running Race Predictor
Riegel formula · T2 = T1 × (D2/D1)^1.06
Known race distance
Your time for that distance (h : mm : ss)
: :
Target race distance
Predicted finish time
DistancePredicted timePace /km
Predictions use the Riegel formula: T2 = T1 × (D2/D1)1.06 (Riegel, 1981 American Scientist). Predictions assume equivalent training and conditions. Performance at longer distances may vary based on endurance training status.
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Predictions show potential. Training delivers it.

A race prediction is a useful benchmark, but it assumes consistent training and equivalent preparation. Our coaches will look at your current fitness, your target event and your timeline — and build a plan that gives you the best chance of hitting or beating that predicted time.

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No obligation — just a conversation about where you are and where you want to get to.

Riegel, P.S. (1981). Athletic records and human endurance. American Scientist, 69(3), 285–290.